Make cannabis in Thailand illegal again?
Thailand is on the cusp of dramatic changes regarding cannabis.
The country became the first in Southeast Asia to decriminalize cannabis, opening the door to entrepreneurs and investors. Tens of millions of dollars of foreign investors are pouring into the country’s economy, but the new conservative government may reconsider current policies.
In this article, we look at three possible paths forward and their implications for businesses and consumers.
🧪Medical Model
If Thailand decides to restrict access to cannabis for medical purposes only, there could be a number of implications for entrepreneurs. Coffee shop and dispensary owners may have to obtain medical licenses or even hire medical professionals for consultations. This will add additional costs and complicate the process of doing business.
At the same time, it will allow lawmakers to kill two birds with one stone — to ensure “control and safety” on the one hand and to employ thousands of medical school graduates for a long time to come on the other hand
🚦 Full regulation
An alternative path is vertical licensing, modeled after the US, Canada and Israel. In this case, companies would control the entire chain of production, from cultivation to sale. This could lead to greater standardization and product quality, but would also create barriers for small businesses. Today, such projects are proposed by the same parties that introduced legalization . They are supported by large market players, local farmers and Western investors, but are opposed by conservative politicians and certain Thai citizens.
🚧 Partial prohibition
In this context, localized prohibition of cannabis use is often talked about. Such proposals come from regions where the population leads a traditional way of life and has no bonuses from the flow of cannaturists.
It cannot be ruled out that the ban will be partial, but what will become of Bangkok, Phuket and Pataya?
🔮 Predictions and consequences
How will market events turn out? What kind of distress should store owners and grocers expect? Should we await a prohibition in the near future?
Political analysts and journalists find no consensus on these questions, but here are a few conclusions that may help many market players to take the right decisions
- 🚔 Restrictions will not be long in coming — controlling authorities are already being formed, which means we will soon learn about additional certification conditions necessary to access the legal market.
- 🏥 Active lobbying for a “medical” scenario will likely lead canna shop owners to hire medical staff and obtain a pharmaceutical license in addition to their existing ones.
- 🛩 Increased control in any of the described options would most likely mean closing grey traffic flows from the US and Spain in order to support Thai growers and nationalize the cannabis market domestically.
The good news for all market players is that all the described regulations will not be adopted until the end of the tourist season.
This means that we have at least half a year to actively participate in public dialog and create a positive image of the industry in the eyes of society and the state.
This material is not an investment forecast or recommendation, but we always welcome your opinions in the comments at Bangkok Cannabis News
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